Risk Theory

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Chapter 11 dealing with ruin probability during a finite time interval does not give an adequate view of the current importanoe of this topic but the position is fluid because of the considerable effort being expended in the search for practical methods of calcu­ lation.whioh the developments are appropriate in an elementary text book is open to doubt. Fortunately the proceedings of the conference arranged by the Society of Actuaries Research Committee in September 1974 provide an effective review of the ourrent position (Credibility, Theory and Applications, Ed. P. M. Kahn, Academic Press, 1975). It is doubtful if any practical use is now made of the Esscher approximation and the N-P method is much more convenient and of adequate accuracy in most practical work. Thus the first half of Chapter 6 is now largely of historical interest. Chapter 11 dealing with ruin probability during a finite time interval does not give an adequate view of the current importanoe of this topic but the position is fluid because of the considerable effort being expended in the search for practical methods of calcu­ lation. Formulae are, in general, complicated and involve extensive computer based quadratures or simulation techniques. The paper by Seal in the Scandinavian Actuarial Journal (The Numerical Calculation of U(w,t) the Probability of Non-ruin in an Interval (O,t) 1974) gives a recent treatment and a fairly complete list of relevant references. In many countries studies are currently in progress in the develop­ ment of models for business planning where the basic operations involve a stochastic process. Not only are insurance companies interested but in many commercial and industrial firms the needs are significant so that a very large field exists for applications.