Election 2019

The sixth general election since the arrival of democracy occurs at a critical moment in South Africa’s history. The immediate question this book poses is will the ANC manage to manufacture a sixth electoral victory despite its disastrous record in government since 2014? It finds the answer in the personal popularity of Ramaphosa, the ANC’s capacity to forge political unity when confronted by the risk of losing power, established voting trends amongst older voters, a sharp decline in participation among the youth which might otherwise have produced electoral shifts, and the failure of opposition parties to present themselves as viable alternatives.

The subsequent question is what the consequences of a sixth successive election victory for the ANC will be for South African democracy. Will the ANC’s triumph provide a sufficiently strong mandate for Ramaphosa to turn South Africa around, or will he fail to overcome Zuma’s allies within the party? Whether he succeeds or fails, will the ANC manage to hold itself together? Is the future and quality of South African democracy dictated by whether the ANC stays together or splits into rival parts?

Election 2019 covers the context of the election, analyses changing voter participation and attitudes, outlines party campaigns, and explores the role of gender and the media before evaluating the result. At its heart is the issue of whether South African democracy will survive.