Upgrading Leadership's Crystal Ball
Five Reasons Why Forecasting Must Replace Predicting and How to Make the Strategic Change in Business and Public Policy
Format:Hardback
Publisher:Taylor & Francis Ltd
Published:27th Jul '17
Currently unavailable, and unfortunately no date known when it will be back
This hardback is available in another edition too:
- Paperback£28.99(9781466554030)
Clearly, concisely, and with many examples from public and private enterprise, Upgrading Leadership‘s Crystal Ball shows why predictions are usually wrong and presents a better way to look at the future forecasting. This book is essential-reading for anyone who needs to make the best possible strategic decisions for moving an organization forward in today‘s rapidly changing environment.Dr. Bauer supplies an insightful comparison of the two mainstream approaches for looking ahead. Although predicting and forecasting are usually used as synonyms for a single process, they are conceptually and methodologically quite different. He explains why everyday failure to operationalize these differences robs us of power to envision and pursue good futures, especially when we are headed in the wrong direction. Readers will learn the real-world value of distinguishing between predicting (extrapolating historical trends) and forecasting (estimating the probabilities of possibilities). Following a description of predictive modeling and a discussion of five reasons why it fails so often in current applications, Dr. Bauer explains the superiority of forecasting and how to do it. To complete readers understanding of the many compelling reasons for making the shift from predicting to forecasting, Upgrading Leadership‘s Crystal Ball presents a practical approach to strategic planning in unpredictable times. It concludes with an analysis of the future of big data and its likely impact on the future.Dr. Bauer is uniquely qualified to write this important book; he is trained in both predicting (economics) and forecasting (meteorology). Author of more than 250 publications, he is internationally recognized not only for long-term success in foretelling the future of medical science and health care, but also for successful innovations to create a better delivery system. This book distills the lessons garnered over his 40 ye
Jeff Bauer’s new book positively crackles with energy and brio, whether he’s busting a myth or sharing an anecdote about WWII meteorology. Like any truly learned teacher, his message is simple and accessible: predictions give us the illusion of precision and trap us in the duality of Right and (mostly) Wrong. A forecast, by contrast, illuminates a garden of likely outcomes; it stirs our creativity and poises us for action.—Tim Ogilvie, CEO, Peer Insight and co-author of Designing for Growth
ISBN: 9781138409446
Dimensions: unknown
Weight: 453g
168 pages