Understanding Near Crises and Escalation in World Politics

A Mixed Methods Approach

Victor Asal author Patrick James author Edward Gonzalez author Norrin M Ripsman author Scott A Silverstone author Steven E Lobell author Kyle Beardsley author

Format:Paperback

Publisher:Taylor & Francis Ltd

Publishing:25th Jul '25

£39.99

This title is due to be published on 25th July, and will be despatched as soon as possible.

Understanding Near Crises and Escalation in World Politics cover

This book analyses the near crisis phase of conflict and escalation in world politics.

Time-sensitive disputes between states, and even with violent non-state actors, do not involve significant risk of military escalation, at least in the moment. Investigating how and why some near crises escalate, while others do not, requires an explanation of the different dynamics of international disputes and the policy tools that states and international institutions can employ. This volume examines cases such as Hezbollah’s 2006 cross-border raid, the 2015 Iranian Ballistic Missile Test, and the 1995 Norwegian Black Brant Missile Launch to reveal there is much to be learned about the full process of (de)-escalation once the near crisis stage is included, as well as from cases that did not escalate to crisis. Overall, this volume contributes toward higher levels of understanding about how and why some international conflicts escalate while others do not.

This book will be of much interest to students of security studies, conflict studies, foreign policy and International Relations.

'Understanding Near Crises and Escalation in World Politics introduces the concept of "near crisis" to address a critical yet often overlooked issue: the policy decisions and actions taken in the prelude to crises or military escalations. The framework offers a fresh perspective that equips policymakers, and scholars, with valuable tools to mitigate entanglements before they escalate into full crises.'

Juan E. Battaleme Martinez, Secretary for Argentinean Defense International Relations, Ministry of Defense

'Near crises occupy the space where confrontations in international crises can escalate or de-escalate. In this outstanding first book-length investigation of near crises in world politics, the systemist method for graphically conveying arguments is employed to provide insights for academics and practitioners who seek understanding of the escalation dynamic.'

Jonathan Wilkenfeld,Professor Emeritus of Government and Politics at the University of Maryland and Director of the ICONS simulation project

'Understanding Near Crises and Escalation in World Politics is an indispensable read for national security practitioners. They now have the tools to diagnose near-crises conditions and recognize possible catalysts for escalation toward crises and even war. How and when policymakers use instruments of power can make a difference in stabilizing a complex world.'

Sonya Finley, Colonel (Retired), Professor of Strategy, US National War College

'By focusing on why and how “near crises” escalate into full-blown conflicts, this book contributes to improving our collective understanding of escalation dynamics. These insights are important to both better prevent crises and conflicts and to strengthen deterrence. An important read for scholars and policy-makers alike.'

Benedetta Berti-Alberti,Director, Policy Planning, Office of the Secretary General, NATO

ISBN: 9781041007159

Dimensions: unknown

Weight: 453g

174 pages