A Sultan in Autumn

An essential short guide to Erdogan's future as the leader of Turkey and what it means for the world

"Informative." - Foreign Affairs

Recep Tayyip Erdogan has ruled Turkey for nearly two decades. Here, Soner Cagaptay, a leading authority on the country, offers insights on the next phase of Erdogan’s rule. His dwindling support base at home, coupled with rising opposition, the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, and Turkey’s weak economy, would appear to threaten his grip on power.

How will he react?

In this astute analysis, Cagaptay casts Erdogan as an inventor of nativist populist politics in the twenty-first century. The Turkish president knows how to polarize the electorate to boost his base, and how to wield oppressive tactics when polarization alone cannot win elections. Cagaptay contends that Erdogan will cling to power—with severe costs for Turkey’s citizens, institutions, and allies. The associated dynamics, which carry implications far beyond Turkey’s borders—and what they portend for the United States—make A Sultan in Autumn a must-read for all those interested in Turkey and the geopolitics of the next decade.