Securing the Peace

Using comprehensive data on internal conflicts, Toft challenges the flawed assumptions driving international peacemaking diplomacy and peacekeeping operations, which sadly may be prolonging civil wars instead of ending them. This provocative and politically incorrect book ought to stimulate a long-needed debate over the efficacy of current approaches to ending conflicts. -- Andrew Natsios, Georgetown University This well-researched book makes an incredibly important contribution to our understanding of civil war termination and recurrence. While we have known for some time that military victory leads to more decisive and lasting cessations of violence, it was not clear why. Toft addresses these questions and persuasively demonstrates that the key to long-lasting peace lies in the reform of the security sector. -- Stephen Saideman, McGill University An impressive book, Securing the Peace breaks new ground in the important area of civil war settlements. Toft reaches new and counterintuitive conclusions based on the analysis of quantitative data and case studies, and brings us forward in our understanding of this critical issue. -- Roy Licklider, Rutgers University

Explores civil war terminations, including negotiated settlements, military victories by governments and rebels, and stalemates and ceasefires. Examining the outcomes of all civil war terminations since 1940, this title develops a general theory of postwar stability, showing how third-party guarantees may not be the best option.Timely and pathbreaking, Securing the Peace is the first book to explore the complete spectrum of civil war terminations, including negotiated settlements, military victories by governments and rebels, and stalemates and ceasefires. Examining the outcomes of all civil war terminations since 1940, Monica Toft develops a general theory of postwar stability, showing how third-party guarantees may not be the best option. She demonstrates that thorough security-sector reform plays a critical role in establishing peace over the long term. Much of the thinking in this area has centered on third parties presiding over the maintenance of negotiated settlements, but the problem with this focus is that fewer than a quarter of recent civil wars have ended this way. Furthermore, these settlements have been precarious, often resulting in a recurrence of war. Toft finds that military victory, especially victory by rebels, lends itself to a more durable peace. She argues for the importance of the security sector--the police and military--and explains that victories are more stable when governments can maintain order. Toft presents statistical evaluations and in-depth case studies that include El Salvador, Sudan, and Uganda to reveal that where the security sector remains robust, stability and democracy are likely to follow. An original and thoughtful reassessment of civil war terminations, Securing the Peace will interest all those concerned about resolving our world's most pressing conflicts.