Judgment under Uncertainty

The thirty-five chapters in this book describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce.

Judgment under Uncertainty explores the intricacies of judgmental heuristics and the biases that arise from them. Spanning thirty-five chapters, the book delves into how these cognitive shortcuts affect decision-making in various contexts, including laboratory settings as well as significant social, medical, and political scenarios. Each chapter examines different aspects of judgment, such as representativeness and availability heuristics, the challenges of assessing covariation and control, and the phenomenon of overconfidence.

The text is structured to provide both classic insights and contemporary perspectives, with about half of the chapters being edited versions of foundational articles in the field. The remaining chapters offer fresh analyses and discussions, contributing to a comprehensive understanding of judgmental processes. The content is designed to review multiple studies and broader areas of research, rather than focusing solely on isolated experimental findings. This approach enriches the reader's grasp of how biases influence decision-making across various domains.

This book serves as a valuable resource for students, researchers, and decision-makers alike. By illuminating the mechanisms behind judgment and the potential for improvement, it aims to enhance the reader's ability to navigate uncertainty. Ultimately, Judgment under Uncertainty provides insights that can lead to more informed and effective decision-making in both personal and professional contexts.