Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures

Foreign policy strategy requires planning for multiple scenarios, imagining alternative futures, and facing up to risk. It also involves a constant, honest, rigorous assessment of whether existing policies are working - including how to adapt if they're not. Michael Oppenheimer shows how to conduct precisely these kind of assessments in his extremely useful new book, based on years of practical experience. The result is a work that should prove worthwhile to policymakers and analysts - indeed anyone interested in improving the quality of American foreign policy." -Colin Dueck, Associate Professor, George Mason University School of Policy, Government, and International Affairs.
"Michael Oppenheimer has written a comprehensive user guide to scenario-based analysis. But Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures is also much more than that: a thoughtful plea for the systematic application of methods that would help our policymakers lay bare their underlying assumptions, improve their recognition of unfolding trends, and, ultimately, better prepare the United States for even the most unpredictable of world events. " -Daniel S. Markey, Senior Research Professor in International Relations and Academic Director of the Global Policy Program at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University
"The only thing certain about the future is that it will surprise us. This seminal work, by one of the pioneers in the field of scenario analysis, offers a creative but disciplined way of thinking about the future. It provides illuminating perspectives on Russia, China, and other pivotal countries, along with a practical guide for developing and applying scenarios to policy-making in a complex world. " -Robert Hutchings, Dean, Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs, the University of Texas at Austin
To be secure in a rapidly changing world, America needs a better balance between assertiveness and restraint in its global policies. That balance can best be discovered by constructing careful scenarios of future alternatives. Here is an invaluable guide for using scenarios to test for strategic coherence and tactical agility." -James Hoge, former editor, Foreign Affairs
"In his latest work, Michael Oppenheimer addresses the crucial weaknesses of American policy-making with a call for 'strategic coherence and tactical agility'. Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures is a necessary how-to for practitioners operating at the front lines of business and politics. " -Ian Bremmer, President, Eurasia Group and author of Superpower